Why Prepare ?

Worst Case Scenario

Written by Kenneth D. Nunn

   I am sure a number of you are new to our site. In which case, in order for you to fully understand and take advantage of what we are attempting to accomplish you must understand what we are preparing for. You must understand our expectations and/or assumptions and what we base these expectations and assumption on. Our basic premise is based on what we believe to be the worst-case scenario. This would be a catastrophic event, natural or manmade that would overnight hurl the United States as well as the World back in time one hundred fifty or more years. We will show how this is not only possible but extremely likely. We will show that there are numerous learned scientist that agree with our expectations and assumptions. We will show how precarious the U.S.’s and the Worlds infrastructure actually is. (From now on infrastructure will be referring to the U.S. as well as the World’s infrastructure, unless otherwise stated.)

   Now a note here...throughout articles and throughout the website and Facebook you will soon notice that we often insert definitions of certain words or phrases. This is not because we question your intelligence, we simply want to make certain we are all on the same page.

   To begin let’s look at the infrastructure.

   Infrastructure 1. the underlying foundation or basic framework (as of a system or organization) 2. the permanent installations required for military purposes 3. the system of public works of a country, state, or region; also: the resources (such as personnel, buildings, or equipment) required for an activity

Electrical Grid is an interconnected network for delivering electricity from producers to consumers. It consists of generating stations that produce electrical power, high voltage transmission lines that carry power from distant sources to demand centers, and distribution lines that connect individual customers.

Power stations may be located near a fuel source, at a dam site, or to take advantage of renewable energy sources, and are often located away from heavily populated areas. They are usually quite large to take advantage of economies of scale. The electric power which is generated is stepped up to a higher voltage at which it connects to the electric power transmission net.

The bulk power transmission network will move the power long distances, sometimes across international boundaries, until it reaches its wholesale customer (usually the company that owns the local electric power distribution network).

On arrival at a substation, the power will be stepped down from a transmission level voltage to a distribution level voltage. As it exits the substation, it enters the distribution wiring. Finally, upon arrival at the service location, the power is stepped down again from the distribution voltage to the required service voltage(s).

   Put in basic terms, as they say, the heart of the infrastructure is the power grid. Without the power grid nothing else works, the infrastructure is useless without electricity. Cutting off the electrical power would be akin to cutting off the blood supply to the body. Without blood our brain would cease to function. Without blood our muscles would cease to function. Without blood our body would quickly die.

   So put another way the power grid is the U.S.’s Achilles heel. Much like our Achilles heel the power grid is also one of if not the most vulnerable sector of our infrastructure. Now, I am not going into the many vulnerabilities of the power grid. This is covered and will be covered throughout the website and the Facebook.

   As stated earlier we are assuming the worst-case scenario. That would be the loss of the power grid for an extended period of time.

Catastrophic event: 1.A momentous tragic event ranging from extreme misfortune to utter overflow or ruin 2. Utter failure 3. a violent and sudden change in a feature of the earth 4. The final event of the dramatic action especially of a tragedy

   As you have probably realized by now I believe most of us will see a Catastrophic Event in our lifetime. I am not referring to an event such as the recent hurricanes. These were bad and caused a lot of suffering and hardships. However, they were minor short-lived events compared to what is in the realm of possibilities.

   I am referring to an event such as a number of 8.0 magnitude monster earthquakes that hit the New Madrid fault in Missouri, along the Mississippi Valley in the early 1800's. For firsthand accounts of this event click here to visit our sister site. I am referring to the December 26, 2009, earthquake measuring 9.3 magnitude that occurred off the Northwest Coast of Indonesian island of Sumatra. The results was a Catastrophic tsunami with waves as high as eighty feet, killing nearly three hundred thousand people and causing untold damage. What would be the results if something along the magnitude of either of these events occurring today only hitting Los Angeles, East Coast U.S., New York, or for that matter any populated area in the U.S.? What would be the results if a meteorite hits the Central U.S. as happened at 7:14 A.M 1908 along the Tunguska River in Siberia?

   There are any number of events, manmade as well as natural, that could destroy the power grid. Solar storm, earthquake, Volcano, Hurricane, terrorism, nuclear explosion and etc. Without a doubt, the world will experience more natural disasters, at some point in the future there will be Catastrophic Events of the magnitude the Earth has seen before. There have been several in the past and will be several in the future. No one can deny this, it is inevitable; it is a part of nature.

   These are only the natural events; now consider the dangers we face from man-made events. We are undoubtedly in more danger from a man-made Catastrophic Event than ever before in man’s history. By this I mean, look at the capabilities of mass destruction man has today, biological, chemical, nuclear & EMP, economic and now we are learning of the very real dangers of cyberspace terrorist.

   U.S. intelligence chiefs recently outlined the most dangerous threats to mankind in its annual “World Threats Meeting”. In an opening statement to U.S. Congress, National Intelligence Director Daniel Coates said: “The risk of interstate conflict, including among great powers, is higher than at any time since the end of the cold war.”

   According to many learned people, this would include scientist, military personnel, and politicians the one most destructive catastrophic events that the United States could suffer would without doubt be a High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse Bomb most often referred to as simply an HEMP. One of the most frightening aspects of this is the fact while an HEMP is considered one of if not the most destructive events it is also agreed on that it would be one of the easiest attacks for not only a major power but also for a rogue nation to execute. Following is a description of what an HEMP is plus a couple links and quotes, I encourage you to visit and/or read. There is a wealth of information that you need to be aware of in order to understand the dangers and permanence of what we are preparing for.

   Taken from FEMA training site:

   Wall Street Journal The EMP Threat August 9, 2008,

   An EMP attack occurs when a nuclear bomb explodes high in the Earth's atmosphere. The electromagnetic pulse generated by the blast destroys all the electronics in its line of sight. For a bomb detonated over the Midwest, that includes most of the continental U.S. Few, if any, people die in the blast. It's what comes next that has the potential to be catastrophic. Since an EMP surge wipes out electronics, virtually every aspect of modern American life would come to a standstill.

   Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures. EMP Commission, April 2008. At:

   August 11, 2008 Emergency Management Higher Education Program Report

   Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack.

  

Can America’s Power Grid Survive an Electromagnetic Attack?

   By Naureen S Malik

   December 22, 2017, 3:00 AM MST

   Taken from Bloomberg Technology Website

   John Norden, director of operations at ISO New England Inc., which manages a grid serving six states, said the industry is unprepared for a full-scale electromagnetic attack. The power industry doesn’t really have any standards or tools to handle black sky events such as an extreme cyber or EMP attack, or even conventional war, Norden said at a recent conference.

   Jeff Engle, vice president of government and legal affairs for United Data Technologies, a security services firm.

   “EMP technology itself has been advancing with devices becoming smaller, more effective,

   The Edison Electric Institute, an industry group said in a 2015 paper titled Electromagnetic Pulses (EMPs): Myths vs. Facts.

   “Other sectors of the economy likely will be affected by a nuclear EMP attack, including other critical infrastructure sectors upon which the electric sector depends. It makes little sense to protect the electric grid while ignoring these other critical infrastructure sectors.”

   Also I put together and published a book Why Prepare to Survive: The True State of the Union back in 2012. Although it was a few years ago most of the information it contains is even more relevant today than it was in 2012. This has a wealth of information I think you will find interesting and informative including HEMP and the 18 CIKR.

   To further illustrate that the Government is aware of the dangers that the power grid presents you also need to understand the importance it puts on securing what is referred to as CIKR’s or critical infrastructure and key resources.

   December 2003 then President G.W. Bush signed Homeland Security Presidential Directive 7 (HSPD-7) establishing a national policy for Federal departments and agencies to identify and prioritize critical infrastructure and to protect them from terrorist attacks. HSPD-7 identified 18 critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) sectors and designated Federal Government Sector-Specific Agencies (SSAs) for each of the sectors.

Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources

(CIKR)

• Chemical • Commercial Facilities
• Critical Manufacturing • Dams
• Emergency Services • Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste
• Agriculture and Food • Banking and Finance
• Communications • Defense Industrial Base
• Energy • Government Facilities
• Information Technology • National Monuments and Icons
• Postal and Shipping • Healthcare and Public Health
• Transportation Systems • Water

   To summarize what HSPD-7 covers and concludes is these 18 critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) sectors are totally dependent on the power grid to function. It further concludes that for whatever reason the U.S. losses the power grid then these 18 critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) sectors will also be lost. It further concludes that the loss of any of the 18 CIKRs will produce through collateral damage a cascading effect that has the very real possibility of causing the other 17 CIKRs to fail.

   For more detailed information on these 18 CIKR’s as well as other aspects of the dangers we face I would recommend reading Why Prepare to Survive: The True State of the Union I wrote this book back in 2012 and although that was a few years ago most of the information it contains is even more relevant today than it was in 2012. I would also recommend clicking on the link below which will allow you to read in its entirety.

   Once the power grid goes down it will produce a cascading effect that will shut down the infrastructure. If the power grid is down for a period of time, then there will be no returning to normal. This is the result of collateral damages to the power grid. This occurs for a number of reasons but mostly because of the overloads placed on other pieces of equipment. The question is how long the power grid would have to be down before there is permanent damage to the power grid. This will destroy the power grid which will led to the total failure of the infrastructure. From reports I have seen most feel that if the power grid is down as little as three days the power grid would be rendered unrepairable.

   There are number of reasons why the power grid will not be restored after an event that shuts it down or destroys it. The most obvious problem is the sheer size of the power grid. The power grid is comprised of 450,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines. There are actually three separate but connected power grids.

   These factors plus the often overlooked fact that without electricity there will be no communication. There will be no way to coordinate the work. No way to order the parts or for that matter ship the parts if they were available. One of the biggest obstacles will be the fact that there will be no one to take charge, take responsibility. Without someone to tell people what to do nothing gets done.

   Now, if you still think I am exaggerating then I really don’t know what to tell you. The Government has issued many warning, congress has had many meeting, military has acknowledged, many prominent scientists have warned that it can and, in all probability, will happen. According to many experts, Government, civilian and military, the power grid is the U.S. Achilles heel.

   Recently the UK has began taking this threat seriously. So much so that Cambridge University now has a Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. I suggest you visit it and learn just what is possible, more importantly probable.

   For more detailed information I ask you to please read other articles on this site which goe into more detail.

Copyright © 2018 Kenneth D. Nunn


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